Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
